Today is Media Day down in Indy, and that would be cool if it was any team but the Patriots at the Super Bowl. I can’t even imagine how many times reporters heard the phrase “we are just taking it one day at a time”. Gronk must be dying inside to let out another yo soy fiesta. Anyway, I don’t want to brag but I did go 8-2 in the playoffs with my picks the past few weeks which I think is pretty impressive. If you had any brains you would take my pick for the Super Bowl to the bank and cash in. So here goes nothing:
New York Giants @ New England Patriots (-3)
Last weeks games both came down to the wire. The Giants won in overtime thanks in part to a fumbled punt, and the Patriots won in the last seconds thanks to
Ray Finkle Billy Cundiff missing a 32 yard field goal to send it into overtime. But that is why I picked the two teams to win last week was because they just somehow pull out games like that. The Patriots finally beat a team with a winning record, but it wasn’t pretty. Neither was the Giants and San Fran mudbowl. The only thing we should be thankful for was that the lights didn’t go out again at Candlestick after the game because I heard Sandusky was spotted in the 49ers locker room. These two teams matchup almost perfectly. The Patriots have a outsanding offense and a so-so defense I guess we can call them now since they played two decent games the last two weeks and the Giants have an outstanding defense and a good offense. I think the thing that sets these two teams apart is going to be the difference in the game. The Giants defensive line is any offenses nightmare. Pierre-Paul, Umenyiora, Tuck, and Canty are all defensive ends with speed and moves to get by any lineman. The catch here is that most of the time they all play together. The Pat’s lineman won’t have the normal 2 fat guys running into them to plug up holes, rather 4 athletic guys making swim moves and stunts to get to Brady.
The other advantage for the Giants is their 3 wide receivers. Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham are all capable of making big plays at any time. I am not sure the Patriots have ever faced a team this season with as many weapons at the wide receiver position (except when they played them in the regular season) and I am not sure the Pat’s corners and safeties can really matchup. Eli has shown time and time again this year that he is now an elite quarterback, and it shows in his ability now to read blitz’s and find the open guy. The Patriots have a pretty good quarterback on their side as well who can do everything Eli can do. However, the health of Gronk is very unknown right now and will be until kickoff on Sunday. High ankle sprains are nearly impossible to come back from 100% in just two weeks, and we all saw how it affected Big Ben this season over the course of 5 or so weeks. Gronk is a freak of nature so if anyone could come back from it it would be him, but I am skeptical to believe he will play and be effective this Sunday. The key to the Patriots success however lays solely on the offensive line. Time and time again this Patriots team has shown that if you let the defense get to Brady, you are in for a long day. They don’t need to worry about blitz’s with linebackers or corners because Brady can identify those and find the open man. They have to worry strictly on the 4 man rush that the Giants will bring, because coverage will most likely be tight 5-10 yards down field and Brady will have to start going through his options and might not have the time.
In the end, I think the Giants outwork and out-muscle the Patriots. I really like teams like the Giants who have been playing playoff games for 8 weeks now rather than teams like the Patriots who haven’t played a good team in a big game until last week. I think the Giants take the momentum and their defensive line goes off on Brady, getting to him often and disrupting his timing and accuracy. I also like Manningham to have a big game for the Giants as I think they will put an enormous amount of attention on Nicks and Cruz. My official pick will be the Giants with the spread, but if you want to make more money take the Giants money line which is at +115. I like the G-Men to win this one 23-17 unless
Ray Finkle Billy Cundiff is signed by the Giants in the next few days. Tbow’s Pick- Giants +3
Also, since it’s the Super Bowl why not just go big or go home. I also like the under of 55. Some people think this will be a shootout, I think the opposite. Last week there weren’t many points scored and I think that continues as these teams know each other well and it will be a hard-fought battle for every yard. Hell, let’s even throw in a pick for MVP. I am going to go with the guy I talked about before, Mario Manningham. In his 3 games this postseason, he has a touchdown in each game which is nearly as many as he had the entire season while he was dealing with an injury. Let’s not forget, just last year this guy had 60 catches for nearly 1,000 yards and 9 TD’s and I like him to play a big factor in this game, big enough to get him the MVP.
P.S. I am not just picking the Giants in this game because I don’t like the Patriots. I picked the Pat’s to win last week I just am a realist and usually pick right.