NFL Week 3 Gambling Guide
So I’m a little late to the party, but it’s better late than never right? I am going to try and do this every week, unless of course my picks are embarrassing then I’ll probably stop. I wrote half this the other night with lots of insight and it didn’t save so I’m starting from scratch with slightly less insight. Let’s win some money.
Chargers @ Bills (-2.5)- This line has moved a little bit this morning down to as low as 1.5, but regardless I like the Bills. I think both teams are surprisingly good this season, Bills more so. The Chargers are coming off a huge win against Seattle, but have to travel coast to coast and are playing at 1 ET on top of that. I think the Chargers put up a stinker today and the Bills show bettors and fans that they could be legit this year. They can run the ball and EJ Manuel has been efficient, sound familiar? Good defense, mobile efficient quarterback and a stellar run game. Poor man’s Seattle. Take the Bills.
Pick- Bills -2.5
Cowboys @ Rams (+2.5)- Rams are beat up and on their 3rd string quarterback and the Cowboys are coming off a big road win to avoid the dreaded 0-2. But this is the Cowboys and can you really trust them as road favorites? I’m not sure. The Cowboys schedule gets pretty tough including a prime time Sunday night home opener next week vs the Saints, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cowboys take the Rams for granted. I think the Rams can sneak a win past the Cowboys today.
Pick- Rams +2.5
Redskins @ Eagles (+5.5)- Everyone’s favorite upset pick is the Redskins over my beloved Eagles today. Plain and simple, Nick Foles can’t play as bad as he’s played so far this year and the Eagles are still 2-0 and putting up 30+ points each week. I think in front of the home crowd, Chip get’s the offenses first half woes out of the way and they step on the gas and don’t look back. The Eagles schedule gets very difficult coming up which I think Chip can identify and put as much emphasis on this division game as possible.
Pick- Eagles -5.5
Texans @ Giants (-1.5)- I think a lot of people will be betting the Texans today, based on how bad the Giants have looked. Texans are 2-0 but really haven’t looked that good playing against bad teams. The entire offense has been horrible for the Giants and Arian Foster is probably out today which I don’t think is a huge loss because I think the run game in Houston is more of a system and not pure running back talent (yeah Ben Tate, I’m talking to you). This game will come down to turnovers and which team can protect the ball. Obviously Eli will throw his picks, but I like the G-Men today to come off their poor start and get on the board with a W this week.
Pick- Giants -1.5
Vikings @ Saints (-10.5)- I hate double digit spreads and stay away from them for the most part. Vikings are in the middle of a side show with Peterson and sponsors pulling out and people getting thrown under the bus and the Saints offense is just plain unstoppable at home. Home opener for the Saints and they NEED a win, I see this game over by halftime.
Pick- Saints -10.5
Titans @ Bengals (-7)- I actually love this game today. Bengals are a TD favorite and are at home coming off a big win last week. But let’s really look at them. They lost to the Ravens week 1, and got the Falcons week 2 who came off a huge come from behind win the week before and we all know Matt Ryan is an average quarterback at best on the road outside. I think the Bengals are good but I certainly don’t think they are a touchdown better than the Titans. Tennessee is going to have an inconsistent offense this year, but the offense has a chance. I think Titans come in and beat the Bengals sending Ginger Andy Dalton to 1-2.
Pick- Titans +7
Ravens @ Browns (+2)- I am staying far away from this game because I really don’t know what to make of the Browns. As a fan, I will root for them because I hate Joe Flacco and everything the scumbag Ravens stand for. Let’s hope God is watching and go Browns.
Pick- Browns +2
Packers @ Lions (-2)- This is my favorite match up of the 1 o’clock games. Two great offenses with very mediocre defenses in the dome. Anyone say shootout? I have no idea who is going to win this game it will probably come down to a late field goal but I do love the over of 53.5. I think they almost reach the over in the first half so that is the play in this game.
Pick- Over 53.5
Colts @ Jaguars (+7.5)- Shocker special in Jacksonville today. Everyone went into last week betting blindly because “Andrew Luck won’t go 0-2”. Now I expect the same especially since the Jags have looked pretty bad. However, the Colts defense is atrocious. The Eagles could have easily scored another 3 touchdowns. I think Toby Gehrhert gets back on track this week and runs all over the Colts and the biggest surprise after this week will be the Colts sitting at 0-3 and searching for an identity.
Pick- Jags +7.5
Raiders @ Patriots (-14)- This is a weird game. Patriots offense didn’t look good at all last week. They scored 30 something almost all of those were a direct result of the defense. That’s why it’s hard for me to completely back the Patriots at two touchdowns, but at the same time I think we all expect them to roll the Raiders. I think the backdoor might be wide open in this game regardless though, so if I was to bet I would take the Raiders and cross my fingers for a garbage time backdoor.
Pick- Raiders +14
49ers @ Cardinals (+3)- Backup quarterback, banged up running back, decent defense. They deserve to be home dogs. 49ers had the Bears beat and simply imploded on Sunday Night Football. I think the San Fran D is very shaky but I don’t think you need a good defense to beat the Cardinals. They got lucky to leave with a win against the Giants last week and I think San Fran goes in and takes care of business.
Pick- 49ers -3
Broncos @ Seahawks (-5)- I was very surprised to see the line this high, I was expecting a one point or pickem. We all know Peyton has a chip on his shoulder after the absolute beating he took in the Super Bowl. And we all know Peyton plays way better in games that mean less than others. I think this will be a great game to watch and could see Peyton throwing up 40 in Seattle. I love the Broncos this week, solely because a loss like the Broncos took in the Super Bowls is one of the biggest motivators you can have.
Pick- Broncos +5
Chiefs @ Dolphins (-3.5)- This is just a crap game. I would just say stay far away from it but I am just gonna say the AFC East goes for a clean sweep today.
Pick- Dolphins -3.5
Steelers @ Panthers (-3.5)- I’m looking forward to this game tonight. Mike Tomlin has a great record as a prime time underdog, and the Panthers are somewhat of an overvalued team this week. Sure the defense played well against the Lions last week, but the Lions become one dimensional at the drop of a dime. I think Pitt can run the ball, control the clock, and their defense will make Cam move and make mistakes. I think Pitt comes through for Tomlin again and gets the road win in prime time.
Pick- Pitt +3.5
Bears @ Jets (-2.5)- I hate the Jets. Well, I hate Rex Ryan. The way they lost last week just gave me hope that there is a God. However, I like the Jets defense a lot this year. Sure they completely shit the bed last week, but Jay Cutler isn’t as reliable of a quarterback as Rodgers was. We also saw that the Bears run defense is piss poor and the Jets have actually been running the ball well this year, so I can see them controlling the clock and creating turnovers on defense. J-E-T-S suck suck suck. But they will win, and probably act like they won the Super Bowl.
Pick- Jets -2.5
There you have it folks. Perfect 15-0. Also let me state as a disclaimer, 0-15 would be impressive too. Just as hard to pick all losers as it is to pick all winners.