NFL Wild Card Round Preview

imagesToday marks the beginning of the NFL Playoffs which means it’s time for me to tell you how you can make some money. I have to be honest though, this year might be one of the toughest years to pick the winners. Every game it seems like could go either way and to me it’s one of the most balanced out fields in a long time. Except the Broncos. They’re good. But I hate them. Anyway, here are you’re expert picks for the two games today and tomorrow.

Chiefs @ Colts (+1)– Here’s one of the most intriguing games of the first round. You have the Chiefs who may be the biggest fraud team in the NFL and the Colts who are the best Jeckyl and Hyde team of the season. To me the Colts are a better team on paper. Losing Reggie Wayne was a big blow offensively but they’re young wide receivers have picked it up and their defense has been playing pretty good. The Chiefs seem to have lost their purpose in life after losing to the Broncos and their defense has just disappeared. They’ve lost 5 of their last 7 games including a demoralizing home loss to the Colts in week 16 which makes me think the Colts will roll today. Andy Reid has a history of not getting it done in the playoffs and the Chiefs just simply put are playing their worst football at the worst time of the year.

Tbow’s Pick– 30-14 Colts +1

Saints @ Eagles (-3)– Everyone knows I am an Eagles fan so this pick may be biased, but let’s be real when I have ever done something like that? I have high hopes for the Eagles in the playoffs this season. The stars have aligned and they can very well have a smooth road to the NFC Championship game. Saints are 3-5 on the road this season and have always struggled in poor weather conditions. The Eagles have also won 7 of their last 8 games and that is the recipe for deep playoff success in recent years. It’s not always the better team on paper who wins this time of year, it’s the teams that are playing the best and the Eagles are doing that. They played a playoff game last week against Dallas and I believe they are ready to get their first playoff game in forever today. I expect the Eagles to get to Drew Brees on defense and make his life hell tonight. So let’s go Birds!

Tbow’s Pick– 27-17 Eagles -3

Chargers @ Bengals (-7)– Very interesting game here. Biggest spread of the first round and in the playoffs I almost always take the points. Both teams have had some impressive wins as of late but it is just sticking in my brain that San Diego should have lost to the Cheifs last week who sat all of their starters. Andy Dalton hasn’t been able to get out of the first round but he’s built some experience now and there’s no question the Bengals are a much better team. I also say every year how hard it is in the NFL to beat a team twice, and the Bengals beat the Chargers in week 13, 17-10 so you know what, I think I will take the underdog in this one. I really like Keenan Allen and I think this game will come down to a last second field goal but could go either way.

Tbow’s Pick– 21-20 Chargers +7

49ers @ Packers (+3)– Was very surprised to see Green Bay getting 3 points at home in a playoff game. Don’t see that very often. It is gonna be a bit nippy out in Green Bay but I don’t see that as an advantage or disadvantage for either team. Both have big running backs who can pound the ball all day. The difference will be if Green Bay’s defense can limit the big plays. This is one of those games that really can go either way, but the Packers offense is much better than the 49ers offense now that Rodgers is back so that is why I will give them the slight edge.

Tbow’s Pick– 24-20 Packers +3

So there ya have it. Put you’re money where my mouth is because I don’t have any, so take my advice, win some money and then throw some my way. Thanks.

NFL Playoff Preview

nflplayoffI tried out picking every game every week and after a few weeks it was just too much. So I figured I would save the most important picks for the playoffs. I don’t think I need to remind you how dominant I was last year, but I will any way. 9-2 overall picking with the spreads, including my exact score prediction nearly coming true if the Giants could have mustered that 2 point conversion. I have no idea right now what team has an edge on winning the Super Bowl, that’s how close I think most of the teams are. Well, let me retract that statement. That’s how close I think all the NFC teams are, and I think the NFC will win the Super Bowl again. So get your money on Bovada and bet all these games and then you can generously split the winnings with me:

Bengals @ Texans (-5)- Easiest money of the week right here. Yeah, most people already jumped ship on the Texans seeing as they have been playing garbage of late but let’s not forget how dominant they were over inferior opponents for the entire season. And honestly the Bengals are an inferior team. Defenses were able to contain AJ Green towards the end of the season, and I look for the Texans to come out and destroy the Bengals on the ground and also in the air the few times they will actually have to throw. Texans all the way from start to finish and will be looking to avenge their loss to the Pats in the Divisional Round.

Tbow’s Pick- Texans -5

Vikings @ Packers (-9)- I had been going back in forth in my head on this one a lot. In the NFL, it’s not easy to beat a team twice in a season, never mind twice in two weeks. Green Bay will have the advantage being at home and by just the sheer fact that they didn’t win last week. It will be cold in Lambeau and I think the cold will be the main factor in the game. As we saw last week, Rodgers tore apart the Vikings defense in the 2nd half, but that was in the 70 degree dome. I think Peterson continues his MVP season and the Vikings come out and stun the Packers on the road in this first week of the playoffs. Ever since their loss early to the Seahawks which should have been a win, the Packers have piled up the wins but have just not seemed completely right. With Jennings being hurt all season and Nelson playing here and there, the inconsistency I think hurt the offense and will be the demise of the Packers this season. There is hope for everyone, even Christian Ponder can win an NFL playoff game.

Tbow’s Pick- Vikings +9

Colts @ Ravens (-7)- It’s real hard not to root for the Colts this year with all that coach Chuck Pagano has gone through and what the team has done to rally around him. There are a few things we can’t forget about this team though. Andrew Luck is a rookie quarterback. Andrew Luck has not played well on the road this year. Baltimore has almost as big of a home field advantage as Seattle and lastly this could be Ray Lewis’s last game. I think all of that is too much for the Colts to over come. Luck will be a great QB in the league in years to come but I just don’t think the Colts as a team are there yet. They will definitely learn a lot from this game to take with them into next season, but I see Flacco playing well and Ray Rice controlling the game on the ground.

Tbow’s Pick- Ravens -7

Seahawks @ Redskins (+3)- This is the game I’m most looking forward to. Russel Wilson vs. RGIII. It’s really hard to bet against the Seahawks after the tear they have been on, but it’s also hard to bet against what the Skins have done in the same period. I do think that Seattle is a more complete team, mostly because their defense is on a much higher level than the Redskins. The only question is, what can the Seahawks do on the road? They were a mediocre road team all season, and the last road game they played wasn’t even a road game it was on neutral ground in Canada. I do think however that the Hawks defense can bottle up RGIII and the butler Alfred Morris and I think Lynch can keep going beast-mode and Wilson will do what he’s done all year which is manage the game well and limit mistakes.

Tbow’s Pick- Seahawks -3

 

 

The Andrew Luck Debate

I have been hearing a lot of talk about Andrew Luck and what the Colt’s should do during next seasons draft, so I figured I would put in my two cents. I haven’t watched much of Andrew Luck all season until I watched the Fiesta Bowl a few nights ago. He made me feel like I was watching Peyton Manning. He was controlling the game, moving around the lineman, receivers, and running backs and that shows how smart this kid actually is. He only had four incompletions, going 27 of 31 which is over 90 percent and is ridiculous for that many attempts. There is no question in my mind that this kid is the real deal. I could see him stepping in and leading a team to the playoffs in his first year, but should he be thrown right into the starting quarterback role in the NFL?

This leads to the question of whether or not the Colts should take him at number one in the draft. Peyton Manning missed the entire season with a neck injury which nobody really knew much about, and quite frankly I still don’t know much about it. That gives the injury a sense of uncertainty, especially in the future. Who knows, Manning could come back the same player when healthy, or he could tweak it again and miss an entire season. In my opinion, the Colt’s should take Andrew Luck, no question. Manning is 35 years old, and like I said before, his quality of play is uncertain after this injury. I would take Luck and keep Manning as the starter, so Luck could learn from one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. Think of how much better Luck would be if he sat as a backup for a few years behind Peyton Manning. I think he could be great. I know it would be a huge strain on the Colt’s payroll, and it probably isn’t the best idea to tie up most of your money in one position, but the Colt’s need to think about the near future. And the Peyton Manning era could be close to over. So what do you think the Colts should do, take Luck and have him sit, take Luck and trade Manning, or just trade the pick away?

Week 17 Preview

We are coming up on the last weekend of regular season football this week, and there are a few great matchups to look forward to headed by the Giants vs Cowboys. So here we go:

Cowboys at Giants (-3)   WIN

I am going to take the Giants in this one. Romo is banged up and word on the street is Osi Uminyora might be back in action. I think Romo is going to crumble under the pressure from the Giants D-line and the G-Men will move on to the playoffs winning this one 24-10. Pick- New York – 3

Washington at Philadelphia (-8.5)   WIN

Philly has been hot as of late, but neither team has anything to play for. Some could say the Eagles are playing for their head coach Andy Reid who is on the hot seat and may not have a job after this season. I am going to look for the Eagles to play a strong inspired game for their coach, as they did last week against the Cowboys after finding out their season had ended. Pick- Philadelphia -8.5

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-11.5)   LOSS

Tampa has played horrible lately, but with Atlanta’s fate pretty much determined you might see some guys coming off the field after the first half or early in the 3rd. I like the Bucs to cover this week and hey, maybe even win straight up. Pick- Tampa Bay + 11.5   

San Francisco (-10.5) at St. Louis   LOSS

San Francisco is playing for a first round bye, so this game is huge for them. Look for them to come out of the gates hot and to a big early lead, against a St. Louis team that has packed it in and look to go on a strong 7 game losing streak to end the season. Some teams like to play spoiler but I don’t see it. Take the Niners to win big. Pick- San Francisco- 10.5

Chicago at Minnesota (-1.5)    LOSS

Wow, Minnesota is a favorite for probably the first time all year. How big of a turn has Chicago’s season taken after the loss of Cutler and Forte? This game could go either way, Peterson is out for the season but Toby Gerhart has stepped in well before so I am going to give the edge to the Vikings. Da Bears just have no offense and their defense hasn’t looked too good lately either. Go with the Vikes. Pick- Minnesota -1.5

Detroit (-3.5) at Green Bay   LOSS

Detroit is giving 3.5 to Green Bay this weekend because it doesn’t look like a lot of the starters will be playing much for Green Bay as they have home field locked up and no perfect season to play for. Detroit can still be caught by the Falcons for a higher seed but other than that they don’t have much to play for. For teams that will be playing the next week, however, it is important for them to play good so they can feed off that win in the next game. I like the Cowardly Lions to cover this week. Pick- Detroit -3.5

Carolina at New Orleans (-8)  LOSS

New Orleans has been on a roll lately, and can pick up a bye this week with a win so they will be coming out for blood. However, I have liked the way the Panthers have played this year. They have played teams close for the most part, and I like Cam Newton to end the year on a strong note. I like the Saints to pull out the win but I am taking the Panthers to cover. Pick- Carolina +8

Tennessee (-3) at Houston   WIN

Houston is locked into their playoff spot at 10-4, and will most likely be resting some guys. However, Houston always plays well at home and I was never sold on Tennessee at any point in the season so I am going with Houston to cover the spread and win. Pick- Houston +3

Baltimore (-2) at Cincinnati   WIN

Cincinnati has been the surprise team of the year behind rookies Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. They have a great shot at making the playoffs, but beating the Ravens will not be an easy task as they are fighting for the last bye in the AFC. The Ravens are very used to playing must win games on the road, as Joe Flacco has yet to play a playoff game at home in his first years as a starting quarterback. Cincinnati is a good team but I like the seasoned Ravens in this one. Pick- Baltimore -2.

Pittsburgh (-7) at Cleveland   LOSS

This is a pretty easy game in my opinion. Pittsburgh might be without Big Ben but they are playing for a bye and Cleveland is terrible so take the Steelers to win by a touchdown. Pick- Pittsburgh -7

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-3.5)    LOSS

This is the NFL’s version of the Sacko bowl. I honestly don’t even know who to pick here but I am going to jump on the Dan Orlovsky bandwagon and say the Colts will win this game. Just a gut feeling, or maybe that’s the burrito I just ate…Pick- Indianapolis +3.5

New York Jets at Miami (-2.5)   WIN

This is a very tricky matchup. The Jets can play very well when backed against a wall or play god awful. I am thinking they go out and win this game just so they can say they didn’t make the playoffs because other teams didn’t do what they needed to. Always putting the blame on someone else. Pick- Jets +2.5

Buffalo at New England (-10.5)    WIN

Buffalo won their season Super Bowl this year against the Patriots, and I think they Patriots will be out for revenge. I can see the Pats going out to an earl 21-0 lead before Buffalo can blink. Pick- New England -10.5

San Diego at Oakland (-3)   WIN

San Diego is mathematically out of it and Oakland needs to win to get in plus some help. However, San Diego will probably be looking to end the season on a positive note and I don’t trust Carson Palmer and the Oakland D. I am going to go with another upset here. Pick- San Diego +3

Kansas City at Denver (-3)  LOSS

Here is Kyle Orton’s Super Bowl against his former team. He is playing with a personal vendetta but I don’t see the Chiefs being able to overcome the Denver D. Denver wins and gets in. Pick- Denver -3

Seattle at Arizona (-3)   PUSH

This one is very surprising. Seattle has shown to be a good, solid team. Arizona has played well lately but I am looking for Marshawn Lynch to continue his strong year and for Seattle to win. Pick- Seattle +3

Record: 7-8-1