NFL Week 3 Gambling Guide

So I’m a little late to the party, but it’s better late than never right? I am going to try and do this every week, unless of course my picks are embarrassing then I’ll probably stop. I wrote half this the other night with lots of insight and it didn’t save so I’m starting from scratch with slightly less insight. Let’s win some money.

Chargers @ Bills (-2.5)- This line has moved a little bit this morning down to as low as 1.5, but regardless I like the Bills. I think both teams are surprisingly good this season, Bills more so. The Chargers are coming off a huge win against Seattle, but have to travel coast to coast and are playing at 1 ET on top of that. I think the Chargers put up a stinker today and the Bills show bettors and fans that they could be legit this year. They can run the ball and EJ Manuel has been efficient, sound familiar? Good defense, mobile efficient quarterback and a stellar run game. Poor man’s Seattle. Take the Bills.

Pick- Bills -2.5

Cowboys @ Rams (+2.5)- Rams are beat up and on their 3rd string quarterback and the Cowboys are coming off a big road win to avoid the dreaded 0-2. But this is the Cowboys and can you really trust them as road favorites? I’m not sure. The Cowboys schedule gets pretty tough including a prime time Sunday night home opener next week vs the Saints, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cowboys take the Rams for granted. I think the Rams can sneak a win past the Cowboys today.

Pick- Rams +2.5

Redskins @ Eagles (+5.5)- Everyone’s favorite upset pick is the Redskins over my beloved Eagles today. Plain and simple, Nick Foles can’t play as bad as he’s played so far this year and the Eagles are still 2-0 and putting up 30+ points each week. I think in front of the home crowd, Chip get’s the offenses first half woes out of the way and they step on the gas and don’t look back. The Eagles schedule gets very difficult coming up which I think Chip can identify and put as much emphasis on this division game as possible.

Pick- Eagles -5.5

Texans @ Giants (-1.5)- I think a lot of people will be betting the Texans today, based on how bad the Giants have looked. Texans are 2-0 but really haven’t looked that good playing against bad teams. The entire offense has been horrible for the Giants and Arian Foster is probably out today which I don’t think is a huge loss because I think the run game in Houston is more of a system and not pure running back talent (yeah Ben Tate, I’m talking to you). This game will come down to turnovers and which team can protect the ball. Obviously Eli will throw his picks, but I like the G-Men today to come off their poor start and get on the board with a W this week.

Pick- Giants -1.5

Vikings @ Saints (-10.5)- I hate double digit spreads and stay away from them for the most part. Vikings are in the middle of a side show with Peterson and sponsors pulling out and people getting thrown under the bus and the Saints offense is just plain unstoppable at home. Home opener for the Saints and they NEED a win, I see this game over by halftime.

Pick- Saints -10.5

Titans @ Bengals (-7)- I actually love this game today. Bengals are a TD favorite and are at home coming off a big win last week. But let’s really look at them. They lost to the Ravens week 1, and got the Falcons week 2 who came off a huge come from behind win the week before and we all know Matt Ryan is an average quarterback at best on the road outside. I think the Bengals are good but I certainly don’t think they are a touchdown better than the Titans. Tennessee is going to have an inconsistent offense this year, but the offense has a chance. I think Titans come in and beat the Bengals sending Ginger Andy Dalton to 1-2.

Pick- Titans +7

Ravens @ Browns (+2)- I am staying far away from this game because I really don’t know what to make of the Browns. As a fan, I will root for them because I hate Joe Flacco and everything the scumbag Ravens stand for. Let’s hope God is watching and go Browns.

Pick- Browns +2

Packers @ Lions (-2)- This is my favorite match up of the 1 o’clock games. Two great offenses with very mediocre defenses in the dome. Anyone say shootout? I have no idea who is going to win this game it will probably come down to a late field goal but I do love the over of 53.5. I think they almost reach the over in the first half so that is the play in this game.

Pick- Over 53.5

Colts @ Jaguars (+7.5)- Shocker special in Jacksonville today. Everyone went into last week betting blindly because “Andrew Luck won’t go 0-2”. Now I expect the same especially since the Jags have looked pretty bad. However, the Colts defense is atrocious. The Eagles could have easily scored another 3 touchdowns. I think Toby Gehrhert gets back on track this week and runs all over the Colts and the biggest surprise after this week will be the Colts sitting at 0-3 and searching for an identity.

Pick- Jags +7.5

Raiders @ Patriots (-14)- This is a weird game. Patriots offense didn’t look good at all last week. They scored 30 something almost all of those were a direct result of the defense. That’s why it’s hard for me to completely back the Patriots at two touchdowns, but at the same time I think we all expect them to roll the Raiders. I think the backdoor might be wide open in this game regardless though, so if I was to bet I would take the Raiders and cross my fingers for a garbage time backdoor.

Pick- Raiders +14

49ers @ Cardinals (+3)- Backup quarterback, banged up running back, decent defense. They deserve to be home dogs. 49ers had the Bears beat and simply imploded on Sunday Night Football. I think the San Fran D is very shaky but I don’t think you need a good defense to beat the Cardinals. They got lucky to leave with a win against the Giants last week and I think San Fran goes in and takes care of business.

Pick- 49ers -3

Broncos @ Seahawks (-5)- I was very surprised to see the line this high, I was expecting a one point or pickem. We all know Peyton has a chip on his shoulder after the absolute beating he took in the Super Bowl. And we all know Peyton plays way better in games that mean less than others. I think this will be a great game to watch and could see Peyton throwing up 40 in Seattle. I love the Broncos this week, solely because a loss like the Broncos took in the Super Bowls is one of the biggest motivators you can have.

Pick- Broncos +5

Chiefs @ Dolphins (-3.5)- This is just a crap game. I would just say stay far away from it but I am just gonna say the AFC East goes for a clean sweep today.

Pick- Dolphins -3.5

Steelers @ Panthers (-3.5)- I’m looking forward to this game tonight. Mike Tomlin has a great record as a prime time underdog, and the Panthers are somewhat of an overvalued team this week. Sure the defense played well against the Lions last week, but the Lions become one dimensional at the drop of a dime. I think Pitt can run the ball, control the clock, and their defense will make Cam move and make mistakes. I think Pitt comes through for Tomlin again and gets the road win in prime time.

Pick- Pitt +3.5

Bears @ Jets (-2.5)- I hate the Jets. Well, I hate Rex Ryan. The way they lost last week just gave me hope that there is a God. However, I like the Jets defense a lot this year. Sure they completely shit the bed last week, but Jay Cutler isn’t as reliable of a quarterback as Rodgers was. We also saw that the Bears run defense is piss poor and the Jets have actually been running the ball well this year, so I can see them controlling the clock and creating turnovers on defense. J-E-T-S suck suck suck. But they will win, and probably act like they won the Super Bowl.

Pick- Jets -2.5

There you have it folks. Perfect 15-0. Also let me state as a disclaimer, 0-15 would be impressive too. Just as hard to pick all losers as it is to pick all winners.

 

 

NFL Wild Card Round Preview

imagesToday marks the beginning of the NFL Playoffs which means it’s time for me to tell you how you can make some money. I have to be honest though, this year might be one of the toughest years to pick the winners. Every game it seems like could go either way and to me it’s one of the most balanced out fields in a long time. Except the Broncos. They’re good. But I hate them. Anyway, here are you’re expert picks for the two games today and tomorrow.

Chiefs @ Colts (+1)– Here’s one of the most intriguing games of the first round. You have the Chiefs who may be the biggest fraud team in the NFL and the Colts who are the best Jeckyl and Hyde team of the season. To me the Colts are a better team on paper. Losing Reggie Wayne was a big blow offensively but they’re young wide receivers have picked it up and their defense has been playing pretty good. The Chiefs seem to have lost their purpose in life after losing to the Broncos and their defense has just disappeared. They’ve lost 5 of their last 7 games including a demoralizing home loss to the Colts in week 16 which makes me think the Colts will roll today. Andy Reid has a history of not getting it done in the playoffs and the Chiefs just simply put are playing their worst football at the worst time of the year.

Tbow’s Pick– 30-14 Colts +1

Saints @ Eagles (-3)– Everyone knows I am an Eagles fan so this pick may be biased, but let’s be real when I have ever done something like that? I have high hopes for the Eagles in the playoffs this season. The stars have aligned and they can very well have a smooth road to the NFC Championship game. Saints are 3-5 on the road this season and have always struggled in poor weather conditions. The Eagles have also won 7 of their last 8 games and that is the recipe for deep playoff success in recent years. It’s not always the better team on paper who wins this time of year, it’s the teams that are playing the best and the Eagles are doing that. They played a playoff game last week against Dallas and I believe they are ready to get their first playoff game in forever today. I expect the Eagles to get to Drew Brees on defense and make his life hell tonight. So let’s go Birds!

Tbow’s Pick– 27-17 Eagles -3

Chargers @ Bengals (-7)– Very interesting game here. Biggest spread of the first round and in the playoffs I almost always take the points. Both teams have had some impressive wins as of late but it is just sticking in my brain that San Diego should have lost to the Cheifs last week who sat all of their starters. Andy Dalton hasn’t been able to get out of the first round but he’s built some experience now and there’s no question the Bengals are a much better team. I also say every year how hard it is in the NFL to beat a team twice, and the Bengals beat the Chargers in week 13, 17-10 so you know what, I think I will take the underdog in this one. I really like Keenan Allen and I think this game will come down to a last second field goal but could go either way.

Tbow’s Pick– 21-20 Chargers +7

49ers @ Packers (+3)– Was very surprised to see Green Bay getting 3 points at home in a playoff game. Don’t see that very often. It is gonna be a bit nippy out in Green Bay but I don’t see that as an advantage or disadvantage for either team. Both have big running backs who can pound the ball all day. The difference will be if Green Bay’s defense can limit the big plays. This is one of those games that really can go either way, but the Packers offense is much better than the 49ers offense now that Rodgers is back so that is why I will give them the slight edge.

Tbow’s Pick– 24-20 Packers +3

So there ya have it. Put you’re money where my mouth is because I don’t have any, so take my advice, win some money and then throw some my way. Thanks.

NFL Week 3

Last week was a tough week. There were 3 pushes which could have either boosted me to a great week or knocked me down to a terrible week. Either way, I ended with 7-6-3 bringing my two week total to 15-13-3. By my math that is around 54% which is not very good but also not bad. This week I guarantee 10 wins. So if there is ever a week to pony up some money behind my picks, this is it. There have been 2 weeks and the league is as competitive as it’s ever been with 20 teams at 1-1. By the way, screw the Patriots who screwed about 40% of everyone in the world who was in a survivor pool.

Rams @ Bears (-7)- No Forte probably and coming off an embarrassing loss to the Packers in prime time. They have had extra time to prepare though and that goes a long way in the NFL. Rams looked good in their big win against the Redskins but in reality they should have been going to overtime and then who knows what happens. 7 is a good spread for this, I think the Bears win and I see them barely covering the spread.

Tbows Pick- Bears -7

Bucs @ Cowboys (-7)- So clearly Vegas didn’t watch the Cowboys last week. Just looked awful. I expected them to put up some type of fight against the Seahawks but on the other hand the Bucs looked awesome then looked terrible. I think these two teams are very similar and very inconsistent. Both can play at a high level but can also stink up the joint as bad as anyone. I like the Bucs to win and cover.

Tbows Pick- Bucs +7

49ers @ Vikings (+7)- 49ers are looking like the real deal this year. They can throw the ball when they need to and run the ball down your throat. The Vikings lost a heart breaker to the Colts last week and it looks like they are going to lose again this week.

Tbows Pick- 49ers -7

Lions @ Titans (+4)- The Lions are coming off a tough loss to the 49ers and the Titans are coming off a pretty bad loss to the Chargers. The offense for the Lions hasn’t really been there yet, so this is the week I look for them to open it up. Rivers threw for 3 and should have been 4 touchdowns against the Titans last week so I am looking for a huge day from Stafford and Calvin and the Lions to get back on track.

Tbows Pick- Lions -4

Bengals @ Redskins (-3.5)- This is a tough one. The Bengals played good offensively last week, but 20+ points to the Browns offense? That’s worrisome especially seeing how good the Redskins offense looks. I am just going to have to go with my gut on this one and say RGIII doesn’t disappoint in his home opener and the Skins beat the Bengals by a touchdown.

Tbows Pick- Redskins -3.5

Jets @ Dolphins (+3)-  This one needs no analysis. The Jets played a tough team and still put up a pretty good fight and the Dolphins just played a garbage Oakland team.

Tbows Pick- Jets -3

Chiefs @ Saints (-9)- It is really hard to put faith in this Saints team even though the Chiefs have looked BAD on defense. I will give the Saints one more shot and they should explode on offense this week for a big win at home which they need badly.

Tbows Pick- Saints -9

Bills @ Browns (+3)- The Bills looked good on offense granted it was against the Chiefs and I am feeling a big trend this season on teams coming off losses and beating teams coming off wins. The Browns offense showed something last week, and they are at home so I like the Browns in this one, sadly.

Tbows Pick- Browns +3

Jags @ Colts (-3)- So I liked the Colts last week to win and they almost blew it but ended up winning in stunning fashion on a Peyton like drive at the end of the game. Luck is looking like the real deal and he has instant chemistry with Reggie Wayne as well as Donnie Avery. Austin Collie might be coming back this week too and I just think the Colts have too many weapons for the Jags to compete with.

Tbows Pick- Colts -3

Eagles @ Cardinals (+4)- I am a bit nervous taking my Eagles as road favorites. They are coming off a HUGE win against one of the best if not the best team in the AFC and so are the Cardinals. But the Eagles defense is just stout this year. The Eagles offense still isn’t quite there yet and they’ve turned it over 4+ times in the first two games and they have still won both. That says something about how good the Eagles D is. Would it be bad if I only said I like the birds in this one?

Tbows Pick- Eagles -4

Falcons @ Chargers (+3)- The Falcons are 2-0 and so are the Chargers. This ones a coin flip, maybe we see Matthews this week, who knows. Maybe Turner drives drunk to the game, who knows. Since home teams raped last week I will just go with the home dawgs in this one.

Tbows Pick- Chargers +3

Texans @ Broncos (+3)- The Broncos have faced two good teams thus far and the Texans really haven’t had a test. The Broncos are a tough team at home but Peyton looked like the Peyton I expected him to be last game. Turnovers killed them but they still had a shot. I just think the run game of the Texans will be too much so I am taking another road favorite in the Texans.

Tbows Pick- Texans -3

Steelers @ Raiders (+4.5)- Can you say trap game? Coming off a big win against the Jets last week and then a big game next week against the Eagles. I like me some Raiders this week in the black hole to shock the Steelers.

Tbows Pick- Raiders +4.5

Patriots @ Ravens (-3)- Couldn’t think of a better Sunday night game to have on. These two teams are both 1-1 and whoever wins will have a 2 game lead over the other with the tiebreaker going to whoever wins in terms of seeding for the playoffs. I’m just not sold on the Patriots this season. Thought I was after week one but they lost to a decent, not good, decent Cardinals team. The Ravens have never beaten the Patriots in the regular season, but then again the Patriots had won, what, their past 10 home openers? Bound to lose sometime and I just think the balance of the Ravens and them being at home are going to be too much.

Tbows Pick- Ravens -3

Packers @ Seahawks (+3.5)- This will be a good game as well. Like I said last week, The 12th man in Seattle is probably the biggest advantage of any team in the league. It’s loud and it’s a place nobody wants to play. The Packers are vulnerable on defense against a power running game which is what the Hawks have. However, I am not sure they have the defense to keep up with all the Packers weapon. Close first half and then the Pack pull away by two TD’s.

Tbows Pick- Packers -3.5

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Thank God for Football

We have been about a month in to the “no need to watch Sports Center” time period which is when ESPN is filled with baseball highlights and tennis or golf. The only thing worse than hearing about LeBron all day every day is hearing about baseball, tennis and golf every day. Now we can safely say it’s football season and sports will be relevant again. We aren’t stuck with watching this sinking ship known as the Red Sox who have somehow put together the biggest team of pussy’s ever assembled. I mean they are worse than any normal soccer team. Newsflash: you guys are getting paid millions of dollars to play a game. I don’t care if you get one day off a month, I don’t care if you have to work your ass off for 6 months a year. All of us have to work 40 hours a week at a miserable job for the rest of our lives, and you have guys like David Ortiz complaining every day because his 14.5 million dollar 2012 contract isn’t enough and he wanted a multi-year deal. Or maybe Jon Lester who is pitching like Darnell McDonald and looks like he wants to off himself every time he takes the mound. Youk ratted on his teammates and decided to go into a shell until he got shipped out of here for a bag of baseballs, and Ellsbury and Crawford just enjoy watching the games from the dugout and taking the Sox money, maybe taking some Japanese lessons with the ultimate shitbag himself Dice-K. End the season now and trade them all except for Pedroia. Give me 1 million dollars a year and ill go out to center field in a wheel chair trying to catch a baseball. Or maybe they should line all of them up at Pat’s training camp on their next day off and let Mayo and Chung tee off on them.

Someone needs to explain to me why the Patriots keep signing tight ends. Are they trying to run a tight end monopoly? All I know is Vick has been talking Eagles dynasty and I dig it. They had bad overall season, but people forget how good, wait not good, dominant they were over their last 4 games. Their defense that should be dominant only gave up 46 over the last 4 games of the season and their offense put up 125. Yeah sure Vick has only played one full season but I don’t think it’s possible to have a worse offensive line than they had last season. They all looked like Michael Oher at the beginning of the Blind Side not the end. Looking at damn balloons in the air or God knows what. Also don’t forget they went 5-1 in the NFC East last season. They are bound for the Super Bowl this season, no contest…unless of course the Jets decide to hand the starting QB job over to my boy Timmy T. 41 days, I’ll see you there. I will also be starting a fantasy football once a week page, but I can’t give away too much info because my good friend Tom Bomb will steal all my strategies.