NFL Week 3 Gambling Guide

So I’m a little late to the party, but it’s better late than never right? I am going to try and do this every week, unless of course my picks are embarrassing then I’ll probably stop. I wrote half this the other night with lots of insight and it didn’t save so I’m starting from scratch with slightly less insight. Let’s win some money.

Chargers @ Bills (-2.5)- This line has moved a little bit this morning down to as low as 1.5, but regardless I like the Bills. I think both teams are surprisingly good this season, Bills more so. The Chargers are coming off a huge win against Seattle, but have to travel coast to coast and are playing at 1 ET on top of that. I think the Chargers put up a stinker today and the Bills show bettors and fans that they could be legit this year. They can run the ball and EJ Manuel has been efficient, sound familiar? Good defense, mobile efficient quarterback and a stellar run game. Poor man’s Seattle. Take the Bills.

Pick- Bills -2.5

Cowboys @ Rams (+2.5)- Rams are beat up and on their 3rd string quarterback and the Cowboys are coming off a big road win to avoid the dreaded 0-2. But this is the Cowboys and can you really trust them as road favorites? I’m not sure. The Cowboys schedule gets pretty tough including a prime time Sunday night home opener next week vs the Saints, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cowboys take the Rams for granted. I think the Rams can sneak a win past the Cowboys today.

Pick- Rams +2.5

Redskins @ Eagles (+5.5)- Everyone’s favorite upset pick is the Redskins over my beloved Eagles today. Plain and simple, Nick Foles can’t play as bad as he’s played so far this year and the Eagles are still 2-0 and putting up 30+ points each week. I think in front of the home crowd, Chip get’s the offenses first half woes out of the way and they step on the gas and don’t look back. The Eagles schedule gets very difficult coming up which I think Chip can identify and put as much emphasis on this division game as possible.

Pick- Eagles -5.5

Texans @ Giants (-1.5)- I think a lot of people will be betting the Texans today, based on how bad the Giants have looked. Texans are 2-0 but really haven’t looked that good playing against bad teams. The entire offense has been horrible for the Giants and Arian Foster is probably out today which I don’t think is a huge loss because I think the run game in Houston is more of a system and not pure running back talent (yeah Ben Tate, I’m talking to you). This game will come down to turnovers and which team can protect the ball. Obviously Eli will throw his picks, but I like the G-Men today to come off their poor start and get on the board with a W this week.

Pick- Giants -1.5

Vikings @ Saints (-10.5)- I hate double digit spreads and stay away from them for the most part. Vikings are in the middle of a side show with Peterson and sponsors pulling out and people getting thrown under the bus and the Saints offense is just plain unstoppable at home. Home opener for the Saints and they NEED a win, I see this game over by halftime.

Pick- Saints -10.5

Titans @ Bengals (-7)- I actually love this game today. Bengals are a TD favorite and are at home coming off a big win last week. But let’s really look at them. They lost to the Ravens week 1, and got the Falcons week 2 who came off a huge come from behind win the week before and we all know Matt Ryan is an average quarterback at best on the road outside. I think the Bengals are good but I certainly don’t think they are a touchdown better than the Titans. Tennessee is going to have an inconsistent offense this year, but the offense has a chance. I think Titans come in and beat the Bengals sending Ginger Andy Dalton to 1-2.

Pick- Titans +7

Ravens @ Browns (+2)- I am staying far away from this game because I really don’t know what to make of the Browns. As a fan, I will root for them because I hate Joe Flacco and everything the scumbag Ravens stand for. Let’s hope God is watching and go Browns.

Pick- Browns +2

Packers @ Lions (-2)- This is my favorite match up of the 1 o’clock games. Two great offenses with very mediocre defenses in the dome. Anyone say shootout? I have no idea who is going to win this game it will probably come down to a late field goal but I do love the over of 53.5. I think they almost reach the over in the first half so that is the play in this game.

Pick- Over 53.5

Colts @ Jaguars (+7.5)- Shocker special in Jacksonville today. Everyone went into last week betting blindly because “Andrew Luck won’t go 0-2”. Now I expect the same especially since the Jags have looked pretty bad. However, the Colts defense is atrocious. The Eagles could have easily scored another 3 touchdowns. I think Toby Gehrhert gets back on track this week and runs all over the Colts and the biggest surprise after this week will be the Colts sitting at 0-3 and searching for an identity.

Pick- Jags +7.5

Raiders @ Patriots (-14)- This is a weird game. Patriots offense didn’t look good at all last week. They scored 30 something almost all of those were a direct result of the defense. That’s why it’s hard for me to completely back the Patriots at two touchdowns, but at the same time I think we all expect them to roll the Raiders. I think the backdoor might be wide open in this game regardless though, so if I was to bet I would take the Raiders and cross my fingers for a garbage time backdoor.

Pick- Raiders +14

49ers @ Cardinals (+3)- Backup quarterback, banged up running back, decent defense. They deserve to be home dogs. 49ers had the Bears beat and simply imploded on Sunday Night Football. I think the San Fran D is very shaky but I don’t think you need a good defense to beat the Cardinals. They got lucky to leave with a win against the Giants last week and I think San Fran goes in and takes care of business.

Pick- 49ers -3

Broncos @ Seahawks (-5)- I was very surprised to see the line this high, I was expecting a one point or pickem. We all know Peyton has a chip on his shoulder after the absolute beating he took in the Super Bowl. And we all know Peyton plays way better in games that mean less than others. I think this will be a great game to watch and could see Peyton throwing up 40 in Seattle. I love the Broncos this week, solely because a loss like the Broncos took in the Super Bowls is one of the biggest motivators you can have.

Pick- Broncos +5

Chiefs @ Dolphins (-3.5)- This is just a crap game. I would just say stay far away from it but I am just gonna say the AFC East goes for a clean sweep today.

Pick- Dolphins -3.5

Steelers @ Panthers (-3.5)- I’m looking forward to this game tonight. Mike Tomlin has a great record as a prime time underdog, and the Panthers are somewhat of an overvalued team this week. Sure the defense played well against the Lions last week, but the Lions become one dimensional at the drop of a dime. I think Pitt can run the ball, control the clock, and their defense will make Cam move and make mistakes. I think Pitt comes through for Tomlin again and gets the road win in prime time.

Pick- Pitt +3.5

Bears @ Jets (-2.5)- I hate the Jets. Well, I hate Rex Ryan. The way they lost last week just gave me hope that there is a God. However, I like the Jets defense a lot this year. Sure they completely shit the bed last week, but Jay Cutler isn’t as reliable of a quarterback as Rodgers was. We also saw that the Bears run defense is piss poor and the Jets have actually been running the ball well this year, so I can see them controlling the clock and creating turnovers on defense. J-E-T-S suck suck suck. But they will win, and probably act like they won the Super Bowl.

Pick- Jets -2.5

There you have it folks. Perfect 15-0. Also let me state as a disclaimer, 0-15 would be impressive too. Just as hard to pick all losers as it is to pick all winners.

 

 

NFL Wild Card Round Preview

imagesToday marks the beginning of the NFL Playoffs which means it’s time for me to tell you how you can make some money. I have to be honest though, this year might be one of the toughest years to pick the winners. Every game it seems like could go either way and to me it’s one of the most balanced out fields in a long time. Except the Broncos. They’re good. But I hate them. Anyway, here are you’re expert picks for the two games today and tomorrow.

Chiefs @ Colts (+1)– Here’s one of the most intriguing games of the first round. You have the Chiefs who may be the biggest fraud team in the NFL and the Colts who are the best Jeckyl and Hyde team of the season. To me the Colts are a better team on paper. Losing Reggie Wayne was a big blow offensively but they’re young wide receivers have picked it up and their defense has been playing pretty good. The Chiefs seem to have lost their purpose in life after losing to the Broncos and their defense has just disappeared. They’ve lost 5 of their last 7 games including a demoralizing home loss to the Colts in week 16 which makes me think the Colts will roll today. Andy Reid has a history of not getting it done in the playoffs and the Chiefs just simply put are playing their worst football at the worst time of the year.

Tbow’s Pick– 30-14 Colts +1

Saints @ Eagles (-3)– Everyone knows I am an Eagles fan so this pick may be biased, but let’s be real when I have ever done something like that? I have high hopes for the Eagles in the playoffs this season. The stars have aligned and they can very well have a smooth road to the NFC Championship game. Saints are 3-5 on the road this season and have always struggled in poor weather conditions. The Eagles have also won 7 of their last 8 games and that is the recipe for deep playoff success in recent years. It’s not always the better team on paper who wins this time of year, it’s the teams that are playing the best and the Eagles are doing that. They played a playoff game last week against Dallas and I believe they are ready to get their first playoff game in forever today. I expect the Eagles to get to Drew Brees on defense and make his life hell tonight. So let’s go Birds!

Tbow’s Pick– 27-17 Eagles -3

Chargers @ Bengals (-7)– Very interesting game here. Biggest spread of the first round and in the playoffs I almost always take the points. Both teams have had some impressive wins as of late but it is just sticking in my brain that San Diego should have lost to the Cheifs last week who sat all of their starters. Andy Dalton hasn’t been able to get out of the first round but he’s built some experience now and there’s no question the Bengals are a much better team. I also say every year how hard it is in the NFL to beat a team twice, and the Bengals beat the Chargers in week 13, 17-10 so you know what, I think I will take the underdog in this one. I really like Keenan Allen and I think this game will come down to a last second field goal but could go either way.

Tbow’s Pick– 21-20 Chargers +7

49ers @ Packers (+3)– Was very surprised to see Green Bay getting 3 points at home in a playoff game. Don’t see that very often. It is gonna be a bit nippy out in Green Bay but I don’t see that as an advantage or disadvantage for either team. Both have big running backs who can pound the ball all day. The difference will be if Green Bay’s defense can limit the big plays. This is one of those games that really can go either way, but the Packers offense is much better than the 49ers offense now that Rodgers is back so that is why I will give them the slight edge.

Tbow’s Pick– 24-20 Packers +3

So there ya have it. Put you’re money where my mouth is because I don’t have any, so take my advice, win some money and then throw some my way. Thanks.

Wait, there’s a football game tonight?

images (1)

Man, you would think today was the damn Super Bowl. I guess that’s how I would act too if my favorite team played one good team a year.  Anyway, I’m excited because it should be a good game. What I would give for my Eagles to switch with the Patriots and move to the AFC East and put the Pats in the NFC East. 6 automatic wins almost every year. And the only reason I say almost every year is because once in a while the Jets will make the playoffs so those games are harder. I will give my expert analysis however and give both teams keys to victories:

Patriots keys: If the Patriots want to win tonight, it’s all about scoring and scoring early. Now, this could be a problem because it is pretty crappy outside, but weather might not come into play that much. I realize the Texans can score as well, but scoring early and often will really put pressure on the Houston offense which would love to sit on the ball and control the clock. On defense it’s all about stopping the run. Containing Foster would be huge and give the Patriots a clear advantage. The pass defense should be simple. If you want any chance of winning a Super Bowl, you should be able to stop one wide receiver. Houston only has Andre Johnson, and he is a good wide out but the one goal is to contain him for no big plays. Dink and dunks are fine, as long as you can score on offense. Try and get to 30 and hope you can outscore that offense.

Texans keys: Control the clock. If Houston can run, which they can, I really like them tonight. The best way to beat the Patriots is to keep their offense off the field. You know the Patriots offense will score, but it’s not impossible to hold them to 20. Limit possessions and put pressure on Tom Brady. If you can force a few turnovers and run the ball there is no reason to not win this game.

Needless to say, I like the Texans. Honestly, the Patriots have not beaten a really good team in who knows how long. Last year they lost to every good team in the regular season and didn’t beat the Ravens, Billy Cundiff and Lee Evans beat the Ravens. Maybe this is the game where the Pats can show that they are the real deal and aren’t just going to beat up on mediocre teams and then lose to the Giants in the Super Bowl again. I just think the Texans defense is too good, and the Patriots defense isn’t there yet. I see a low scoring game tonight, even though many expect it to possibly be a shootout. The only way it will be a shootout is if the Texans defense shits themselves and forgets how to play. Patriots will score but not a lot and it should be a good, tough, hard fought game. Pats fans better hope it doesn’t come down to a field goal or they might be signing Billy Cundiff next week because Gostkowski is garbage.

Prediction: Houston 21- Patriots- 20

NFL Refs and the Sad Truth

I can’t bite my tongue anymore on the replacement ref issue. I can’t stand listening to all the TV personalities/players/fans complaining about the new refs. If you are complaining about the refs week in and week out, here’s a newsflash for you: you are the reason the real refs aren’t on the field. If you really want the refs back, don’t watch the games. Roger Goodell is a money grubbing bastard who could care less what his product looks like and whether or not the players are happy/safe. All he cares about is ratings and money, and guess what, everyone is still watching! There might even be more people watching now that there is all this talk about how bad the refs are. Now don’t get me wrong and think that I don’t think the refs are bad, because I do think that. You couldn’t honestly think that refs could just come into the NFL and do a great job. But being an NFL ref isn’t like being a mathematician or a rocket scientist. The more they do it the better they’ll get. I think by the end of the season they should be about where the old refs were, which was not good anyways. We praise these old refs now for some reason, when the fact is they all are terrible. Every week we would complain about calls and say how bad the refs are, so the fact that we all want them back now is somewhat strange.

The NFL knows that people will watch no matter what. They are cheap and don’t care about their product. If they cared they would sack up the extra 3 or 4 million to put the old refs back to work. I gained a lot of respect for John Fox last night in his post game conference. There were a lot of things that went on in that game that someone could blame the refs on. He basically said that new refs or old refs, there are a lot of obstacles to overcome in any NFL game and the refs will never be an excuse for why they lost. Point blank that is how every team should be operating. We got to hear Joe Flacco cry like a little baby after they lost to the Eagles. Hey Joe I didn’t hear you complaining about the refs last week when you won. The Ravens of all teams should be benefiting from these refs because defensive backs and line backers can basically get away with murder now and, well, they also have a linebacker who has gotten away with murder once before. So my tip to you people who are constantly complaining about the officials, either stop and embrace it, or keep complaining and don’t watch because that’s the only way the real refs come back is if people stop watching.