NFL Week 3 Gambling Guide

So I’m a little late to the party, but it’s better late than never right? I am going to try and do this every week, unless of course my picks are embarrassing then I’ll probably stop. I wrote half this the other night with lots of insight and it didn’t save so I’m starting from scratch with slightly less insight. Let’s win some money.

Chargers @ Bills (-2.5)- This line has moved a little bit this morning down to as low as 1.5, but regardless I like the Bills. I think both teams are surprisingly good this season, Bills more so. The Chargers are coming off a huge win against Seattle, but have to travel coast to coast and are playing at 1 ET on top of that. I think the Chargers put up a stinker today and the Bills show bettors and fans that they could be legit this year. They can run the ball and EJ Manuel has been efficient, sound familiar? Good defense, mobile efficient quarterback and a stellar run game. Poor man’s Seattle. Take the Bills.

Pick- Bills -2.5

Cowboys @ Rams (+2.5)- Rams are beat up and on their 3rd string quarterback and the Cowboys are coming off a big road win to avoid the dreaded 0-2. But this is the Cowboys and can you really trust them as road favorites? I’m not sure. The Cowboys schedule gets pretty tough including a prime time Sunday night home opener next week vs the Saints, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cowboys take the Rams for granted. I think the Rams can sneak a win past the Cowboys today.

Pick- Rams +2.5

Redskins @ Eagles (+5.5)- Everyone’s favorite upset pick is the Redskins over my beloved Eagles today. Plain and simple, Nick Foles can’t play as bad as he’s played so far this year and the Eagles are still 2-0 and putting up 30+ points each week. I think in front of the home crowd, Chip get’s the offenses first half woes out of the way and they step on the gas and don’t look back. The Eagles schedule gets very difficult coming up which I think Chip can identify and put as much emphasis on this division game as possible.

Pick- Eagles -5.5

Texans @ Giants (-1.5)- I think a lot of people will be betting the Texans today, based on how bad the Giants have looked. Texans are 2-0 but really haven’t looked that good playing against bad teams. The entire offense has been horrible for the Giants and Arian Foster is probably out today which I don’t think is a huge loss because I think the run game in Houston is more of a system and not pure running back talent (yeah Ben Tate, I’m talking to you). This game will come down to turnovers and which team can protect the ball. Obviously Eli will throw his picks, but I like the G-Men today to come off their poor start and get on the board with a W this week.

Pick- Giants -1.5

Vikings @ Saints (-10.5)- I hate double digit spreads and stay away from them for the most part. Vikings are in the middle of a side show with Peterson and sponsors pulling out and people getting thrown under the bus and the Saints offense is just plain unstoppable at home. Home opener for the Saints and they NEED a win, I see this game over by halftime.

Pick- Saints -10.5

Titans @ Bengals (-7)- I actually love this game today. Bengals are a TD favorite and are at home coming off a big win last week. But let’s really look at them. They lost to the Ravens week 1, and got the Falcons week 2 who came off a huge come from behind win the week before and we all know Matt Ryan is an average quarterback at best on the road outside. I think the Bengals are good but I certainly don’t think they are a touchdown better than the Titans. Tennessee is going to have an inconsistent offense this year, but the offense has a chance. I think Titans come in and beat the Bengals sending Ginger Andy Dalton to 1-2.

Pick- Titans +7

Ravens @ Browns (+2)- I am staying far away from this game because I really don’t know what to make of the Browns. As a fan, I will root for them because I hate Joe Flacco and everything the scumbag Ravens stand for. Let’s hope God is watching and go Browns.

Pick- Browns +2

Packers @ Lions (-2)- This is my favorite match up of the 1 o’clock games. Two great offenses with very mediocre defenses in the dome. Anyone say shootout? I have no idea who is going to win this game it will probably come down to a late field goal but I do love the over of 53.5. I think they almost reach the over in the first half so that is the play in this game.

Pick- Over 53.5

Colts @ Jaguars (+7.5)- Shocker special in Jacksonville today. Everyone went into last week betting blindly because “Andrew Luck won’t go 0-2”. Now I expect the same especially since the Jags have looked pretty bad. However, the Colts defense is atrocious. The Eagles could have easily scored another 3 touchdowns. I think Toby Gehrhert gets back on track this week and runs all over the Colts and the biggest surprise after this week will be the Colts sitting at 0-3 and searching for an identity.

Pick- Jags +7.5

Raiders @ Patriots (-14)- This is a weird game. Patriots offense didn’t look good at all last week. They scored 30 something almost all of those were a direct result of the defense. That’s why it’s hard for me to completely back the Patriots at two touchdowns, but at the same time I think we all expect them to roll the Raiders. I think the backdoor might be wide open in this game regardless though, so if I was to bet I would take the Raiders and cross my fingers for a garbage time backdoor.

Pick- Raiders +14

49ers @ Cardinals (+3)- Backup quarterback, banged up running back, decent defense. They deserve to be home dogs. 49ers had the Bears beat and simply imploded on Sunday Night Football. I think the San Fran D is very shaky but I don’t think you need a good defense to beat the Cardinals. They got lucky to leave with a win against the Giants last week and I think San Fran goes in and takes care of business.

Pick- 49ers -3

Broncos @ Seahawks (-5)- I was very surprised to see the line this high, I was expecting a one point or pickem. We all know Peyton has a chip on his shoulder after the absolute beating he took in the Super Bowl. And we all know Peyton plays way better in games that mean less than others. I think this will be a great game to watch and could see Peyton throwing up 40 in Seattle. I love the Broncos this week, solely because a loss like the Broncos took in the Super Bowls is one of the biggest motivators you can have.

Pick- Broncos +5

Chiefs @ Dolphins (-3.5)- This is just a crap game. I would just say stay far away from it but I am just gonna say the AFC East goes for a clean sweep today.

Pick- Dolphins -3.5

Steelers @ Panthers (-3.5)- I’m looking forward to this game tonight. Mike Tomlin has a great record as a prime time underdog, and the Panthers are somewhat of an overvalued team this week. Sure the defense played well against the Lions last week, but the Lions become one dimensional at the drop of a dime. I think Pitt can run the ball, control the clock, and their defense will make Cam move and make mistakes. I think Pitt comes through for Tomlin again and gets the road win in prime time.

Pick- Pitt +3.5

Bears @ Jets (-2.5)- I hate the Jets. Well, I hate Rex Ryan. The way they lost last week just gave me hope that there is a God. However, I like the Jets defense a lot this year. Sure they completely shit the bed last week, but Jay Cutler isn’t as reliable of a quarterback as Rodgers was. We also saw that the Bears run defense is piss poor and the Jets have actually been running the ball well this year, so I can see them controlling the clock and creating turnovers on defense. J-E-T-S suck suck suck. But they will win, and probably act like they won the Super Bowl.

Pick- Jets -2.5

There you have it folks. Perfect 15-0. Also let me state as a disclaimer, 0-15 would be impressive too. Just as hard to pick all losers as it is to pick all winners.

 

 

NFL Wild Card Round Preview

imagesToday marks the beginning of the NFL Playoffs which means it’s time for me to tell you how you can make some money. I have to be honest though, this year might be one of the toughest years to pick the winners. Every game it seems like could go either way and to me it’s one of the most balanced out fields in a long time. Except the Broncos. They’re good. But I hate them. Anyway, here are you’re expert picks for the two games today and tomorrow.

Chiefs @ Colts (+1)– Here’s one of the most intriguing games of the first round. You have the Chiefs who may be the biggest fraud team in the NFL and the Colts who are the best Jeckyl and Hyde team of the season. To me the Colts are a better team on paper. Losing Reggie Wayne was a big blow offensively but they’re young wide receivers have picked it up and their defense has been playing pretty good. The Chiefs seem to have lost their purpose in life after losing to the Broncos and their defense has just disappeared. They’ve lost 5 of their last 7 games including a demoralizing home loss to the Colts in week 16 which makes me think the Colts will roll today. Andy Reid has a history of not getting it done in the playoffs and the Chiefs just simply put are playing their worst football at the worst time of the year.

Tbow’s Pick– 30-14 Colts +1

Saints @ Eagles (-3)– Everyone knows I am an Eagles fan so this pick may be biased, but let’s be real when I have ever done something like that? I have high hopes for the Eagles in the playoffs this season. The stars have aligned and they can very well have a smooth road to the NFC Championship game. Saints are 3-5 on the road this season and have always struggled in poor weather conditions. The Eagles have also won 7 of their last 8 games and that is the recipe for deep playoff success in recent years. It’s not always the better team on paper who wins this time of year, it’s the teams that are playing the best and the Eagles are doing that. They played a playoff game last week against Dallas and I believe they are ready to get their first playoff game in forever today. I expect the Eagles to get to Drew Brees on defense and make his life hell tonight. So let’s go Birds!

Tbow’s Pick– 27-17 Eagles -3

Chargers @ Bengals (-7)– Very interesting game here. Biggest spread of the first round and in the playoffs I almost always take the points. Both teams have had some impressive wins as of late but it is just sticking in my brain that San Diego should have lost to the Cheifs last week who sat all of their starters. Andy Dalton hasn’t been able to get out of the first round but he’s built some experience now and there’s no question the Bengals are a much better team. I also say every year how hard it is in the NFL to beat a team twice, and the Bengals beat the Chargers in week 13, 17-10 so you know what, I think I will take the underdog in this one. I really like Keenan Allen and I think this game will come down to a last second field goal but could go either way.

Tbow’s Pick– 21-20 Chargers +7

49ers @ Packers (+3)– Was very surprised to see Green Bay getting 3 points at home in a playoff game. Don’t see that very often. It is gonna be a bit nippy out in Green Bay but I don’t see that as an advantage or disadvantage for either team. Both have big running backs who can pound the ball all day. The difference will be if Green Bay’s defense can limit the big plays. This is one of those games that really can go either way, but the Packers offense is much better than the 49ers offense now that Rodgers is back so that is why I will give them the slight edge.

Tbow’s Pick– 24-20 Packers +3

So there ya have it. Put you’re money where my mouth is because I don’t have any, so take my advice, win some money and then throw some my way. Thanks.

Im Baaaaack

World Series - St Louis Cardinals v Boston Red Sox - Game Six

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s been a long long time since I’ve been on here, but do not worry at all, because I am back. And since I got 17 hours of sleep last night, I feel like now is a good time to recap everything that has happened since I have been gone. So let’s give it a try.

1. Red Sox dominated life- This team proved everyone wrong, including myself and I loved every second of it. I didn’t think they even had a shot at making the playoffs but once again we are all witness to what a bunch of mediocre guys can do if they enjoy playing together. Even when they had the best record in baseball, I still thought they were going to lose to the Rays in the 1st round. But once they beat them I think everyone knew it was over. The only bad part of the whole thing was that Obee made the dumbest bet in the history of betting and put 100 bucks on the Sox to win the World Series pre-season at 35-1 and got rewarded. Craziest thing I’ve ever seen.

2. NFL sucks- This has been the worst season I’ve seen in a long time. With all the new rules and players safety precautions, it’s making the game unbearable to watch. Sure player safety is a serious thing, but I also hate how the players are whining about player safety and that they can’t hit anyone on defense. Like, hello. Football is a contact sport. There is a great risk for injury, and there has been since the first time anyone ever played. And you’re telling us now that it’s not right and they need to do something. But then complain when the NFL changes rules because it makes your job impossible. Everyone is soft these days. If you don’t want to run the risk of getting a concussion and then having serious illness when you’re older, then find a different sport to play. We’ll bring in Shane Falco to suit up every Sunday and of course the Honey Badger would play because you know he don’t care. Get rid of all the stupid rules and find players who are willing to take the risk.

3. The Atlantic Division in the NBA is screwing the 76ers- Every year I watch the Sixers with just a little bit of hope that they could be competitive. And every year I am disappointed. This year, the Sixers get 2 lottery picks in the draft in Michael Carter-Williams and Nerlens Noel, plus the Pelicans likely lottery pick next year and of course, our shoe in 1st overall pick from sucking this year. Well folks, the Sixers don’t even know how to tank right. Like, the city of Philadelphia and all your fans WANT YOU TO LOSE. I don’t want you to win 30 games and make the playoffs because the East absolutely blows. 30 wins might win the Atlantic. Like, screw off Knicks and Nets and Celtics. We knew Parker and Wiggins were legit first. We decided to tank first. You can’t come in like this and just blatantly suck and make the race for last competitive. That’s not how it works. Also, LeBron to the Sixers next year, you heard it hear first. Where better for LeBron to go than Philly. He’d be surrounded by 2 lottery picks from this year, then 2 from next year in a LOADED draft. Sixers can afford him. Lock it up. See you in Philly next year LeBron.

4. Bruins are kind of good- 1st place in the division going into Thanksgiving. I can deal with that. But let’s make something clear. They are not playing great hockey. I heard a stat the other night that something like 15 of their 30 something goals given up this year have been in the last 2 minutes of a period. We need to stop that right now. All I can picture is us losing every game in the playoffs in the last second and me wanting to kill myself. Tighten it up Claude. Other than that, Tuukka is playing great which makes their decision to sign him long term look good. The Bergeron, Erikksson, Marchand line is starting to come around so that’s good too. Oh, and our 3rd line is dominating people. The One-Eyed-Swede is looking great out there and Riley Smith is playing like a veteran. Let’s just put it all together down the stretch and you can get the Duck Boats ready!

5. Obamacare sucks- So in the month that Obamacare launched, I think my fantasy football team won more games than people signed up for this thing. We got Democrats acting like there’s nothing wrong with spending a billion dollars on something that doesn’t work and you have Republicans shutting down the government. Obama, just admit you were wrong and come up with something that works for everyone. How hard is that? Your idea sucked. It happens. It just happens that you are the President of the United States so your fuck up kind of screws a lot of people. No biggie. You can either stop this now and maybe do something right in your 8 years of office, or leave it and have your grandchildren embarrassed in their US History classes when they get to the chapter of “How Obama Ruined America”. Pretty awkward.

6. New York City sucks- A few weekends ago I took a trip to NYC to get a taste of big city livin. Instead I got to get in almost 8 accidents, stare at huge piles of garbage and deny thousands of bums money because honestly most of those bums are probably better off than me. NYC is disgusting. Not to mention the $115 parking ticket I got for parking in front of a fire hydrant. I park there at 5pm and the curb was covered in trash. I mean this was a trash pile so big that it was twice the size of me high and wider than my car. Like, at 3am there was  a herd of bums lounging in it, and yes the word herd is absolutely necessary. So obviously I couldn’t see the fire hydrant and when the garbage men come, well wouldn’t you know there’s a fire hydrant right next to my car. And the city of NYC tells me that I need to provide evidence. Yeah, cause I’m sure you take a picture of your car every time you park it. Unbelievable.

So there’s what we all missed while I was gone. You guys are more than welcome to resume life now.

Aaron Hernandez Killing More People, While in Jail?

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So this story has come out that one of Aaron Hernandez’s buddy’s from Connecticut died in a one car accident. The police apparently wanted to talk to him about the murders Hernandez is being investigated for and, well, now they can’t. If I know anything from watching shows like CSI, Sons of Anarchy and Breaking Bad, when people die right before they are about to be questioned about a murder, chances are they were murdered by someone else. The biggest question is, how did Hernandez get this loose end taken care of? The bigger question is, how many people has he offed in his lifetime? I think all you need to do is find out every time he’s rented a car and BAM, there’s your answer. I honestly cant even understand how on earth someone is that stupid. Like, rule one of murdering someone would be rent a car under someone else’s name. Maybe Lloyd Christmas or O.J. Then I would think rule two would be not to bring all the evidence back to your house. Now, I have no experience in this field, certainly not as much as Mr. Hernandez but god damn, the Patriots Way is certainly taking a turn for the worst. I still don’t know how the Pats dig themselves out of this one. Oh wait, yes I do. Put Tebow in. The most rational thing to do would be move Brady to tight end and let Tebow sling em in there to him, but then everyone would get all pissy so fine, just put Tebow at tight end and watch him break Gronks touchdown record. There’s your solution Kraft and Bill. Your welcome.

P.S.- What are the odds Hernandez was singing Our God is an Awesome God while driving home after killing that guy? One week with Tebow again and Hernandez just said screw this I’d rather go to prison than play with this guy again.