NFL Week 3 Gambling Guide

So I’m a little late to the party, but it’s better late than never right? I am going to try and do this every week, unless of course my picks are embarrassing then I’ll probably stop. I wrote half this the other night with lots of insight and it didn’t save so I’m starting from scratch with slightly less insight. Let’s win some money.

Chargers @ Bills (-2.5)- This line has moved a little bit this morning down to as low as 1.5, but regardless I like the Bills. I think both teams are surprisingly good this season, Bills more so. The Chargers are coming off a huge win against Seattle, but have to travel coast to coast and are playing at 1 ET on top of that. I think the Chargers put up a stinker today and the Bills show bettors and fans that they could be legit this year. They can run the ball and EJ Manuel has been efficient, sound familiar? Good defense, mobile efficient quarterback and a stellar run game. Poor man’s Seattle. Take the Bills.

Pick- Bills -2.5

Cowboys @ Rams (+2.5)- Rams are beat up and on their 3rd string quarterback and the Cowboys are coming off a big road win to avoid the dreaded 0-2. But this is the Cowboys and can you really trust them as road favorites? I’m not sure. The Cowboys schedule gets pretty tough including a prime time Sunday night home opener next week vs the Saints, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cowboys take the Rams for granted. I think the Rams can sneak a win past the Cowboys today.

Pick- Rams +2.5

Redskins @ Eagles (+5.5)- Everyone’s favorite upset pick is the Redskins over my beloved Eagles today. Plain and simple, Nick Foles can’t play as bad as he’s played so far this year and the Eagles are still 2-0 and putting up 30+ points each week. I think in front of the home crowd, Chip get’s the offenses first half woes out of the way and they step on the gas and don’t look back. The Eagles schedule gets very difficult coming up which I think Chip can identify and put as much emphasis on this division game as possible.

Pick- Eagles -5.5

Texans @ Giants (-1.5)- I think a lot of people will be betting the Texans today, based on how bad the Giants have looked. Texans are 2-0 but really haven’t looked that good playing against bad teams. The entire offense has been horrible for the Giants and Arian Foster is probably out today which I don’t think is a huge loss because I think the run game in Houston is more of a system and not pure running back talent (yeah Ben Tate, I’m talking to you). This game will come down to turnovers and which team can protect the ball. Obviously Eli will throw his picks, but I like the G-Men today to come off their poor start and get on the board with a W this week.

Pick- Giants -1.5

Vikings @ Saints (-10.5)- I hate double digit spreads and stay away from them for the most part. Vikings are in the middle of a side show with Peterson and sponsors pulling out and people getting thrown under the bus and the Saints offense is just plain unstoppable at home. Home opener for the Saints and they NEED a win, I see this game over by halftime.

Pick- Saints -10.5

Titans @ Bengals (-7)- I actually love this game today. Bengals are a TD favorite and are at home coming off a big win last week. But let’s really look at them. They lost to the Ravens week 1, and got the Falcons week 2 who came off a huge come from behind win the week before and we all know Matt Ryan is an average quarterback at best on the road outside. I think the Bengals are good but I certainly don’t think they are a touchdown better than the Titans. Tennessee is going to have an inconsistent offense this year, but the offense has a chance. I think Titans come in and beat the Bengals sending Ginger Andy Dalton to 1-2.

Pick- Titans +7

Ravens @ Browns (+2)- I am staying far away from this game because I really don’t know what to make of the Browns. As a fan, I will root for them because I hate Joe Flacco and everything the scumbag Ravens stand for. Let’s hope God is watching and go Browns.

Pick- Browns +2

Packers @ Lions (-2)- This is my favorite match up of the 1 o’clock games. Two great offenses with very mediocre defenses in the dome. Anyone say shootout? I have no idea who is going to win this game it will probably come down to a late field goal but I do love the over of 53.5. I think they almost reach the over in the first half so that is the play in this game.

Pick- Over 53.5

Colts @ Jaguars (+7.5)- Shocker special in Jacksonville today. Everyone went into last week betting blindly because “Andrew Luck won’t go 0-2”. Now I expect the same especially since the Jags have looked pretty bad. However, the Colts defense is atrocious. The Eagles could have easily scored another 3 touchdowns. I think Toby Gehrhert gets back on track this week and runs all over the Colts and the biggest surprise after this week will be the Colts sitting at 0-3 and searching for an identity.

Pick- Jags +7.5

Raiders @ Patriots (-14)- This is a weird game. Patriots offense didn’t look good at all last week. They scored 30 something almost all of those were a direct result of the defense. That’s why it’s hard for me to completely back the Patriots at two touchdowns, but at the same time I think we all expect them to roll the Raiders. I think the backdoor might be wide open in this game regardless though, so if I was to bet I would take the Raiders and cross my fingers for a garbage time backdoor.

Pick- Raiders +14

49ers @ Cardinals (+3)- Backup quarterback, banged up running back, decent defense. They deserve to be home dogs. 49ers had the Bears beat and simply imploded on Sunday Night Football. I think the San Fran D is very shaky but I don’t think you need a good defense to beat the Cardinals. They got lucky to leave with a win against the Giants last week and I think San Fran goes in and takes care of business.

Pick- 49ers -3

Broncos @ Seahawks (-5)- I was very surprised to see the line this high, I was expecting a one point or pickem. We all know Peyton has a chip on his shoulder after the absolute beating he took in the Super Bowl. And we all know Peyton plays way better in games that mean less than others. I think this will be a great game to watch and could see Peyton throwing up 40 in Seattle. I love the Broncos this week, solely because a loss like the Broncos took in the Super Bowls is one of the biggest motivators you can have.

Pick- Broncos +5

Chiefs @ Dolphins (-3.5)- This is just a crap game. I would just say stay far away from it but I am just gonna say the AFC East goes for a clean sweep today.

Pick- Dolphins -3.5

Steelers @ Panthers (-3.5)- I’m looking forward to this game tonight. Mike Tomlin has a great record as a prime time underdog, and the Panthers are somewhat of an overvalued team this week. Sure the defense played well against the Lions last week, but the Lions become one dimensional at the drop of a dime. I think Pitt can run the ball, control the clock, and their defense will make Cam move and make mistakes. I think Pitt comes through for Tomlin again and gets the road win in prime time.

Pick- Pitt +3.5

Bears @ Jets (-2.5)- I hate the Jets. Well, I hate Rex Ryan. The way they lost last week just gave me hope that there is a God. However, I like the Jets defense a lot this year. Sure they completely shit the bed last week, but Jay Cutler isn’t as reliable of a quarterback as Rodgers was. We also saw that the Bears run defense is piss poor and the Jets have actually been running the ball well this year, so I can see them controlling the clock and creating turnovers on defense. J-E-T-S suck suck suck. But they will win, and probably act like they won the Super Bowl.

Pick- Jets -2.5

There you have it folks. Perfect 15-0. Also let me state as a disclaimer, 0-15 would be impressive too. Just as hard to pick all losers as it is to pick all winners.

 

 

Bounty System for Goodell

This just in. Roger Goodell and his top assistants have been adding money to a pool encouraging the suspensions and fines of players in what was referred to as a “bounty system”. Goodell was rewarded every time he fined someone or suspended someone for what would be considered a normal football play a few years ago.

This whole bounty system thing is ridiculous. If anyone in their right minds thinks any of these players who are getting paid millions to play to the best of their abilities and want to win football games were going out there and somehow trying to hurt players to get an extra 10 grand then they are out of their minds. Yeah let me just take a run at someone after the whistle so I can hurt them, get fined 50k but, hey, ill get 10k from our cool bounty program. Sounds like a sweet deal huh? Anyone that has played football knows that it’s virtually impossible to intentionally hurt someone within the rules of the game and without malicious intent that would warrant a suspension most likely. If you could injure someone and take them out of the game within the rules, players would do it every single play. But to say these players were deliberately going out there with the intentions of hurting a player in the back of their mind, I think is absurd. It just doesn’t make sense for a player to risk getting fined or suspended for extra money which would just be headed straight to the league office.

I’d even go so far to say that the bounty system was good for some players. Granted, it shouldn’t be seen as a bounty system and should be called something else, but say a guy went out there and made a great play on a guy and he tore his ACL and was done for the year. Some guys obviously feel bad naturally, but they get to the locker room and get 15k and it helps them move past it. Ok that might be a stretch but regardless this whole thing is being blown out of proportion, go figure, by Goodell and his vision for the NFL to be the NFFL or National Flag Football League. We should have a bounty system for whoever can get him out as commissioner.

NFL Divisional Round Preview

So last week I went 3-1 in my picks, not bad. Many people thought the New Orleans spread was way too high and many thought the Broncos would get blown out so I would say 3-1 was pretty respectable. We have great games this week, and you might be interested to hear my thoughts in this week of the underdogs. Lets start in the NFC:

New Orleans (-4) at San Francisco

I have really been on the Saints bandwagon the past few weeks. They have been unstoppable it seems on offense. However, the Saints success is  connected to their ability to play at home. The Saints on the road are a much, much different team. Many of us are still waiting for the 49ers to be the 49ers we know, and that’s the one’s that stink up the joint. It simply just hasn’t happened because this team is solid. They have a top 5 defense, and an oustanding running game led by veteran Frank Gore. I like the 49ers to get to Brees all day and make his life a living nightmare, and for the 49ers to come away with the win. The spread will probably even move higher to maybe a -7 for the Saints by game time but either way I like San Fran to cover. Tbow’s Pick- San Francisco +4

New York Giants at Green Bay (-9)

I really didn’t expect what I saw from the Giants last week. The Falcons looked terrible, and that was mostly due to the Giants constant pressure and ability to make a stop when they needed to. The Giants played the Packers tight earlier in the season, and I think this game will be very close. In the NFL, a lot of success is created from momentum. The Giants have been playing playoff games since week 14 and we all saw how dangerous a hot team like that can be in the playoffs as the Packers were the same type of team last year. I like the G-Men to shock the world in Green Bay with a victory behind the guy I hate Eli Manning. Tbow’s Pick- New York Giants +9

Houston at Baltimore (-9)

I have watched a few Texans games and I have watched a few Baltimore games this year and to tell you the truth, neither team really impresses me. Joe Flacco can play great at times but can also play awful. The Texans are just a solid team that plays great defense and can limit youre offensive opportunities with their run game. I think this is going to be another close game, definitely closer than the 9 point line. However, I do like the Ravens to win the game. This is surprisingly Joe Flacco’s first home playoff game, so I think he will play good. If you are betting the line, I like the Texans to cover but come up short. Tbow’s Pick- Texans +9

Denver at New England (-14)

No big deal. Just a halo over Mile High Sunday

When I saw this line open up at 14 points I wanted to vomit all over myself. The better Tim Tebow plays the less credit he gets, it’s insane. I am going to post a fully detailed post about the reasons why Denver will win on Saturday so I will keep this post short and give you the summary. Pats haven’t won a playoff game since 07. Denver won their home game and everything else is gravy, no pressure. The game they played in week 15 would have been a much different game had it not been for 3 second quarter turnovers, and the Patriots don’t do well in the playoffs against an oponent they beat easily a few weeks earlier (they beat the Jets 45-3 in week 13 last year then lost 28-21 in the Divisional Round) I like the Tebow’s to cover and win against Brady and Co. behind Josh McDaniels sabotage. Tbow’s Pick- Denver +14

NFC Playoff Picture

Unlike the AFC, the NFC Playoff picture is pretty set right now. All the teams are in but one, and Green Bay has already locked up home field advantage throughout. Now, because the Jets are absolutely horrible and are dream killers, the Eagles have no shot of getting in, and it looks like their improbable playoff chance would have worked out had the Jets just been able to win. The Giants look to be the better team heading into their game against the Cowboys for the NFC East title this weekend, as Romo most likely will be playing injured. The last thing you want against a pass rush like the Giants is a quarterback who has to think about his injured hand all game.

While the playoffs teams are pretty much in, I think the NFC playoffs will be much more competitive and exciting than the AFC this year. In my opinion, every team in there will have a shot (unless the Cowboys pull off the upset this weekend). San Francisco has a ridiculous defense, only giving up 1 rushing touchdown all year and that was last week to Marshawn Lynch who had about 18 rushes inside the 5 yard line. Pretty impressive. The Lions, we all know, haven’t played a playoff game since probably before I was born, so while they have no experience, their offense can win them at least one game. Stafford is playing out of his mind lately, and he has the best wide receiver in the NFL to throw to.

An offense which may be even hotter than Detroit’s is the Saints. Brees breaks Marino’s passing yards in a season record in just 15 games, and it seems like they are putting up 40 points every week. They beat a good Atlanta team on Monday night, and at this point I might give the edge to these guys in the playoffs. They have so many weapons with Colston, Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore, Meechem, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas I mean the list goes on and on. The only way to beat the Saints is to create pressure, something a Giants team could certainly do if they are matched up together. The only way I see the Saints losing is a stunner to the Giants (if they happen to play each other) which is very possible if the Saints miss out on the 2nd bye. The Falcons are a tricky team. They have all the tools but they just don’t seem to have the intensity every game. Something seems to be missing this year. Matt Ryan has the ability to play great and also has the ability to take his team out of the game. I like the Falcons to win one game in the playoffs but don’t see a deep run this year.

Lastly, the Packers are the head of the NFC. That being said, I saw a game against the Kansas City Cheifs that made me rethink these guys are unbeatable. Aaron Rodgers looked horrible and that defense could barely stop Kyle Orton and Jackie Battle, yeah exactly. They will be a tough team to play, especially seeing as the road to the Super Bowl goes through Lambeau, but I see an upset in the making. Last year they were a hot team who were playing playoff games the last 4 weeks of their season, and kept that intensity going right into the playoffs. This year, they are the 1 seed and will be resting players this last week and getting a week off. That can be a dangerous combination for a team who has only lost 1 game and won the Super Bowl last year. Look for a very close game and possibly an upset in their first playoff game. If the Packers can make it past the 2 week lull with a win, they might be going to the Super Bowl. So what do you think? Who is going to win the NFC? Vote below and if you are lucky enough to have an Android, you can download my new app by clicking on the link on the side of the page or searching Tbows World in the Android Market.