NFL Week 3 Gambling Guide

So I’m a little late to the party, but it’s better late than never right? I am going to try and do this every week, unless of course my picks are embarrassing then I’ll probably stop. I wrote half this the other night with lots of insight and it didn’t save so I’m starting from scratch with slightly less insight. Let’s win some money.

Chargers @ Bills (-2.5)- This line has moved a little bit this morning down to as low as 1.5, but regardless I like the Bills. I think both teams are surprisingly good this season, Bills more so. The Chargers are coming off a huge win against Seattle, but have to travel coast to coast and are playing at 1 ET on top of that. I think the Chargers put up a stinker today and the Bills show bettors and fans that they could be legit this year. They can run the ball and EJ Manuel has been efficient, sound familiar? Good defense, mobile efficient quarterback and a stellar run game. Poor man’s Seattle. Take the Bills.

Pick- Bills -2.5

Cowboys @ Rams (+2.5)- Rams are beat up and on their 3rd string quarterback and the Cowboys are coming off a big road win to avoid the dreaded 0-2. But this is the Cowboys and can you really trust them as road favorites? I’m not sure. The Cowboys schedule gets pretty tough including a prime time Sunday night home opener next week vs the Saints, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cowboys take the Rams for granted. I think the Rams can sneak a win past the Cowboys today.

Pick- Rams +2.5

Redskins @ Eagles (+5.5)- Everyone’s favorite upset pick is the Redskins over my beloved Eagles today. Plain and simple, Nick Foles can’t play as bad as he’s played so far this year and the Eagles are still 2-0 and putting up 30+ points each week. I think in front of the home crowd, Chip get’s the offenses first half woes out of the way and they step on the gas and don’t look back. The Eagles schedule gets very difficult coming up which I think Chip can identify and put as much emphasis on this division game as possible.

Pick- Eagles -5.5

Texans @ Giants (-1.5)- I think a lot of people will be betting the Texans today, based on how bad the Giants have looked. Texans are 2-0 but really haven’t looked that good playing against bad teams. The entire offense has been horrible for the Giants and Arian Foster is probably out today which I don’t think is a huge loss because I think the run game in Houston is more of a system and not pure running back talent (yeah Ben Tate, I’m talking to you). This game will come down to turnovers and which team can protect the ball. Obviously Eli will throw his picks, but I like the G-Men today to come off their poor start and get on the board with a W this week.

Pick- Giants -1.5

Vikings @ Saints (-10.5)- I hate double digit spreads and stay away from them for the most part. Vikings are in the middle of a side show with Peterson and sponsors pulling out and people getting thrown under the bus and the Saints offense is just plain unstoppable at home. Home opener for the Saints and they NEED a win, I see this game over by halftime.

Pick- Saints -10.5

Titans @ Bengals (-7)- I actually love this game today. Bengals are a TD favorite and are at home coming off a big win last week. But let’s really look at them. They lost to the Ravens week 1, and got the Falcons week 2 who came off a huge come from behind win the week before and we all know Matt Ryan is an average quarterback at best on the road outside. I think the Bengals are good but I certainly don’t think they are a touchdown better than the Titans. Tennessee is going to have an inconsistent offense this year, but the offense has a chance. I think Titans come in and beat the Bengals sending Ginger Andy Dalton to 1-2.

Pick- Titans +7

Ravens @ Browns (+2)- I am staying far away from this game because I really don’t know what to make of the Browns. As a fan, I will root for them because I hate Joe Flacco and everything the scumbag Ravens stand for. Let’s hope God is watching and go Browns.

Pick- Browns +2

Packers @ Lions (-2)- This is my favorite match up of the 1 o’clock games. Two great offenses with very mediocre defenses in the dome. Anyone say shootout? I have no idea who is going to win this game it will probably come down to a late field goal but I do love the over of 53.5. I think they almost reach the over in the first half so that is the play in this game.

Pick- Over 53.5

Colts @ Jaguars (+7.5)- Shocker special in Jacksonville today. Everyone went into last week betting blindly because “Andrew Luck won’t go 0-2”. Now I expect the same especially since the Jags have looked pretty bad. However, the Colts defense is atrocious. The Eagles could have easily scored another 3 touchdowns. I think Toby Gehrhert gets back on track this week and runs all over the Colts and the biggest surprise after this week will be the Colts sitting at 0-3 and searching for an identity.

Pick- Jags +7.5

Raiders @ Patriots (-14)- This is a weird game. Patriots offense didn’t look good at all last week. They scored 30 something almost all of those were a direct result of the defense. That’s why it’s hard for me to completely back the Patriots at two touchdowns, but at the same time I think we all expect them to roll the Raiders. I think the backdoor might be wide open in this game regardless though, so if I was to bet I would take the Raiders and cross my fingers for a garbage time backdoor.

Pick- Raiders +14

49ers @ Cardinals (+3)- Backup quarterback, banged up running back, decent defense. They deserve to be home dogs. 49ers had the Bears beat and simply imploded on Sunday Night Football. I think the San Fran D is very shaky but I don’t think you need a good defense to beat the Cardinals. They got lucky to leave with a win against the Giants last week and I think San Fran goes in and takes care of business.

Pick- 49ers -3

Broncos @ Seahawks (-5)- I was very surprised to see the line this high, I was expecting a one point or pickem. We all know Peyton has a chip on his shoulder after the absolute beating he took in the Super Bowl. And we all know Peyton plays way better in games that mean less than others. I think this will be a great game to watch and could see Peyton throwing up 40 in Seattle. I love the Broncos this week, solely because a loss like the Broncos took in the Super Bowls is one of the biggest motivators you can have.

Pick- Broncos +5

Chiefs @ Dolphins (-3.5)- This is just a crap game. I would just say stay far away from it but I am just gonna say the AFC East goes for a clean sweep today.

Pick- Dolphins -3.5

Steelers @ Panthers (-3.5)- I’m looking forward to this game tonight. Mike Tomlin has a great record as a prime time underdog, and the Panthers are somewhat of an overvalued team this week. Sure the defense played well against the Lions last week, but the Lions become one dimensional at the drop of a dime. I think Pitt can run the ball, control the clock, and their defense will make Cam move and make mistakes. I think Pitt comes through for Tomlin again and gets the road win in prime time.

Pick- Pitt +3.5

Bears @ Jets (-2.5)- I hate the Jets. Well, I hate Rex Ryan. The way they lost last week just gave me hope that there is a God. However, I like the Jets defense a lot this year. Sure they completely shit the bed last week, but Jay Cutler isn’t as reliable of a quarterback as Rodgers was. We also saw that the Bears run defense is piss poor and the Jets have actually been running the ball well this year, so I can see them controlling the clock and creating turnovers on defense. J-E-T-S suck suck suck. But they will win, and probably act like they won the Super Bowl.

Pick- Jets -2.5

There you have it folks. Perfect 15-0. Also let me state as a disclaimer, 0-15 would be impressive too. Just as hard to pick all losers as it is to pick all winners.




Super Bowl Sunday

Well folks, the day is here. Lucky for you, I get to tell you my final pick for the last football game of the year. Went 2-0 in the Conference champions picks which puts me at 7-2-1 for the playoffs. Not too shabby. So take a seat, place your bets and drink all the beer you can because it’s Super Bowl Sunday!

Seahawks @ Broncos (-3)– The line moved around a bit this week but it looks like it’s solid at Broncos -3. Big mistake by Vegas. I love, love, love the Seahawks today. I got to watch a good amount of each of these teams this year and I think Seattle is a better overall team. Historically, when you have a great defense against a great offense, the defense has the upper hand and ends up winning. I have no idea why this happens but it does. This game comes down to the Seattle offense against the Broncos defense. People are over looking the loss of the Broncos top D-back Chris Harris way too much. When you are missing your best corner, that’s a huge loss especially when your defense wasn’t that good to begin with. I think Russel Wilson once again will need to play well in order for the Seahawks to win. Marshawn Lynch can’t do it himself, but Wilson needs to be efficient like he has been all year. For the Broncos, they need to protect Peyton. Plain and simple. I’m not sure if this offensive line has seen a defense that can get at the quarterback like the Seahawks can all year. I think that is the difference in this game. Peyton is great when he can sit back and let his receivers get open. There’s no quarterback better. But if you get even just pressure on Peyton he gets very antsy in the pocket because he doesn’t want to get hit and he makes mistakes. He throws bad interceptions which can change this game in a second. I think it is going to be a long day for Peyton and I actually think Percy Harvin might be a huge factor in the outcome of this game.

Tbow’s Pick– Seahawks +3

Final Score– Seahawks 21 Broncos 10

There you have it. Go win some money and I’ll see ya September.

Championship Weekend Picks

Last week was much better for me. 3-1 and I feel extremely confident going into this weekend. Overall I’m at 5-2-1 and if you were betting with me you would be pretty happy about that. So today we have one good game and one blowout game. Bet the house this weekend.

Patriots @ Broncos (-5)– This spread should be 10, but I think Vegas felt bad. Even though I do this every time and the Patriots usually do the opposite of what I think, this week will be different. The worst thing that happened to the Patriots last week was the weatherman saying it was going to be 60 degrees and sunny in Denver. The Broncos manhandled the Patriots in the first half then just got caught up in a comeback that should never happen in professional sports. Flukey, and the cold wind was a factor. But you just have to face the facts sometimes. The Patriots defense isn’t that good, and their offense is worse. Peyton is going to build a lead today early and I guarantee you Blount won’t be running through holes big enough to fit a truck. Maybe it’s just me being a hater, but I will tell you all I hate Peyton way more than I hate Brady so it cancels out. This is just logic. Patriots shouldn’t be here, Broncos should. Plain as that. Patriots secondary couldn’t stop LaVon Brazil last week so I’m pretty confident that Decker and Thomas are about to have a field day on that awful secondary.

Tbow’s Pick– Broncos -5

49ers @ Seahawks (-3)– This game is going to be the best game of the playoffs so far. I know the 49ers got absolutely embarassed at Seattle earlier this year but playoffs are a whole different ball game. The two best defenses in the league going head to head in the loudest stadium in the NFL. They both have young quarterbacks who can extend plays with their legs and both have veteran running backs who can run any linebacker over. On paper this is as even a matchup as you will ever get. 49ers have been here before and know what it takes to get it done, but I think it is Seattle’s turn. Their defense is going to obviously be the reason they win, but I think they will need Russel Wilson to throw a couple touchdowns to win today. San Fran’s defense will not let Lynch beat them and it’s going to take Wilson’s best game of the playoffs to win. This will be a nail biter but I think Seattle pulls it out in the end.

Tbow’s Pick– Seahawks -3

NFL Divisional Round Preview

Last week I gotta admit was a little disappointing. No let me rephrase that. I wanted to hang myself from my ceiling fan. The Eagles just ripped my heart out, AGAIN, and got everyone’s hopes up, AGAIN. And that’s all I have to say about that. As far as my picks went last week, it could have been worse. 2-1-1, granted the Colts had no business covering that spread or winning. But I am EXTREMELY confident in this weeks picks so if there was ever a week to ride with me it’s now.

Saints @ Seahawks (-10.5)– I don’t care who the team is, if you are in the playoffs and 10 point favorites you aren’t going to cover. End of story. No explanation needed. This will be a close game as most are in the playoffs and that’s all you need to know. Saints may even win this one, just sayin.

Tbow’s Pick– Saints +10.5

Colt’s @ Patriots (-8.5)- Here’s another high spread but sneakily I think the Patroits might roll them. This is the toughest game to decide on by far. I’m leaning towards the Colts and points because of the poor weather. Sure it is going to hurt the Colts offense too but that’s why I think this will be a low scoring affair and a tough one to win by more than a touchdown.

Tbow’s Pick– Colt’s +8.5

49ers @ Panthers (PK)– This one is so tough for Vegas that they aren’t even throwing a spread on here. Pick em straight up. But it’s a no brainer. 49ers have been here before. They did it last week in a much more hostile environment. Panthers had a good run but nothing about them screams deep playoff run.

Tbow’s Pick – 49ers

Chargers @ Broncos (-10.5)– Here’s another one. Sure the Broncos are a great team but the Chargers just beat them at Denver a few weeks ago. This is Peyton Mannings biggest game since his Super Bowl win, maybe even more pressure because if he can’t win this it will solidify him as a choke artist. My philosophy is in the Broncos favor this week though because I always say it’s extremely hard to beat a team twice in one season. Broncos will win but I don’t think they will cover. I can see the Chargers running it and controlling some of the clock making it hard to win by double digits.

Tbow’s Pick– Chargers +10.5